RAS History & PhilologyИзвестия Российской Академии наук. Серия литературы и языка Izvestiia Rossiiskoi akademii nauk. Seriia literatury i iazyka

  • ISSN (Print) 1605-7880
  • ISSN (Online) 2413-7715

The collapse of the Treaty on the elimination of intermediate-range missiles: what next?

PII
S207054760005250-2-
DOI
10.18254/S207054760005250-2
Publication type
Article
Status
Published
Authors
Volume/ Edition
Volume / Special Issue
Pages
0
Abstract

The causes of the collapse of the Intermediate Range Missile Treaty (INF) are manifold. It appeared in the bipolar era – and now we live in a multipolar world where different centers of power coexist, pursuing their own interests. In addition, the military-technical progress achieved in recent years was bound to erode the strategic balance between the nuclear "super-powers" that had emerged during the cold war.

The demise of this crucial disarmament agreement will have very negative consequences for the entire disarmament and non-proliferation system. The collapse of the INF Treaty could be the final nail in the coffin of arms control. Given the close and inextricable link between disarmament and non-proliferation, the process of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons is not likely to survive the collapse of arms control. The consequences for international security can be completely unpredictable – nuclear weapons can fall in the hands of unstable States. To address the issue of nuclear stability, there is no alternative but to engage other nuclear powers, including the undeclared ones, in a dialogue on this issue, as well as the need to take into account the consequences of military and technological progress over the last third century since the signing of the INF Treaty.

Keywords
Intermediate Range and Shorter Range Missile Treaty, strategic stability, arms control mechanism, non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction
Date of publication
30.05.2019
Year of publication
2019
Number of purchasers
94
Views
3470

References

  1. 1. Remarks. Michael R. Pompeo, Secretary of State. Press Briefing Room. Washington, DC. February 1, 2019. URL: https://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2019/02/288712.htm
  2. 2. Vstrecha s Sergeem Lavrovym i Sergeem Shojgu. 2019-02-02. Moskva, Kreml'. URL: http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/copy/59763
  3. 3. Batyuk V.I. Smert' kontrolya nad vooruzheniyami. Aktual'nye problemy Evropy. 2018. № 1, s. 25.
  4. 4. McHenry W. Russia's Missile Gamble: Is the INF Treaty Dead? The National Interest. March 11, 2017. URL: http://nationalinterest.org/feature/russias-missile-gamble-the-inf-treaty-dead-19730?page=show
  5. 5. Dogovor mezhdu SSSR i SShA o likvidatsii ikh raket srednej dal'nosti i men'shej dal'nosti (spravka). URL: http://www.mid.ru/voenno-strategiceskie-problemy/-/asset_publisher/hpkjeev1aY0p/content/id/1138496
  6. 6. Rossijsko-amerikanskie otnosheniya pri administratsii Busha. Programma po novym podkhodam k bezopasnosti Rossii (PONARS). M., 2001, s.5-6.
  7. 7. Veber Yu., Krikovich A. Izmotat' i peresidet'. Istoki amerikanskogo povedeniya v otnoshenii Rossii. Rossiya v global'noj politike. 2016. № 2. URL: http://www.globalaffairs.ru/number/Izmotat-i-peresidet-18030
  8. 8. Blackwill R., and Gordon P. Containing Russia How to Respond to Moscow’s Intervention in U.S. Democracy and Growing Geopolitical Challenge. Council on Foreign Relations. Council Special Report No. 80. January 2018, p.3-4.
  9. 9. Annual Report to Congress. Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2018. – Office of the Secretary of Defense. May 16, 2018. P. 59-76; Ezhegodnik SIPRI 2017. Vooruzheniya, razoruzhenie i mezhdunarodnaya bezopasnost': Per. s angl. – IMEhMO im. E.M. Primakova RAN, 2018, p. 359-364.
  10. 10. Ezhegodnik SIPRI 2017. Vooruzheniya, razoruzhenie i mezhdunarodnaya bezopasnost': Per. s angl. – IMEhMO im. E.M. Primakova RAN, 2018, p. 365-370.
  11. 11. Arbatov A.G. Transformatsiya yadernogo sderzhivaniya. / Bezopasnost' i kontrol' nad vooruzheniyami 2017-2018. Preodolenie razbalansirovki mezhdunarodnoj stabil'nosti /otv. red. A.G. Arbatov, N.I. Bubnova. – M.: IMEhMO RAN; Politicheskaya ehntsiklopediya, 2018, s. 17.
  12. 12. Arbatov A.G. Chem opasen dlya Rossii vykhod SShA iz Dogovora o raketakh srednej i men'shej dal'nosti. 22.10.2018. URL: https://carnegie.ru/commentary/77543
  13. 13. Rossijskuyu yadernuyu «Mertvuyu ruku» priznali bespoleznoj. 9 noyabrya 2018. URL: https://lenta.ru/news/2018/11/09/inf
  14. 14. Arbatov A.G. Chem opasen dlya Rossii vykhod SShA iz Dogovora o raketakh srednej i men'shej dal'nosti. 22.10.2018. URL: https://carnegie.ru/commentary/77543
  15. 15. Andrea Thompson Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Statement for the Record Testimony before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations NOTIONAL “The State of Arms Control with Russia” September 18, 2018.
  16. 16. United States Mission to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. 8 February 2019. The United States Remains in Compliance with the INF Treaty. URL: https://nato.usmission.gov/press-release-the-united-states-remains-in-compliance-with-the-inf-treaty/
  17. 17. Batyuk V.I. Zagnat' dzhinna v butylku. Istoriya peregovorov mezhdu Moskvoj i Vashingtonom po ogranicheniyu i sokrascheniyu strategicheskikh nastupatel'nykh vooruzhenij. – Saarbrucken, Germany, Pamarium Academic Publishing. 2012. P.485-486.
  18. 18. Marganova D. «Pozitsiya SShA zastyla v svoej beskompromissnosti i bezappelyatsionnosti trebovanij k Rossii». Itogi zhenevskikh konsul'tatsij po dogovoru o RSMD razocharovali obe storony. Kommersant'. 15.01.2019. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/3854728
  19. 19. Putin’s Asymmetric Assault on Democracy in Russia and Europe: Implications for U.S. National Security. A Minority Staff Report Prepared for the Use of the Committee on Foreign Relations United States Senate. One Hundred Fifteenth Congress Second Session. January 10, 2018. Washington, D.C., p. 157.
QR
Translate

Indexing

Scopus

Scopus

Scopus

Crossref

Scopus

Higher Attestation Commission

At the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation

Scopus

Scientific Electronic Library